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         %REFLEXIVE PROCESS PREDICT EXPECT ACCURATE 940120
 process,  than  will  small  variations  in
the  initial  conditions of  an objective  process.    The
elements of an objective process  interact with themselves
and  each other  in  simpler ways than  the  elements   of
reflexive  processes  interact  with themselves  and  each
other.    The relative  simplicity  of the interactions of
elements  of objective  processes  makes the   course   of
events   in objective processes relatively predictable.

     Chaos theory was developed by physicists who had been
in the  habit of assuming that in  principle they would be
able to develop procedures by which to  predict the course
of  the  weather  for extended periods of  time  into  the
future.    They did not anticipate any fundamental  reason
which  would  place a limit upon their ability  to develop
procedures  by which to make  very  long  range  and  very
accurate weather predictions.    Their behaviors  were  in
large part determined by  their  self conceptions  of what
was humanly possible; i.e.,  by  reflexive interactions of
their self images of themselves.

     Eventually  physicists  became aware that among large
collections of interacting objects the level of complexity
of  impersonal  interactions  is  so  great  that  it   is
impossible  within  a system of interacting  elements  for
some   of  the  elements (people)  to  isolate  themselves
from   the system well enough to  measure,  understand and
carry out the computations by which to predict objectively
and  without  bias the future course of  events  of  those
elements from which they have separated themselves.

     In  the  case  of reflexive  systems  the  degree  of
separation  required  to  insure  that  the  system  whose
behavior  is to be predicted is "simple"  ---  is so great
that  it results in a  high level of ignorance  about  the
"simple"    process   and  makes   reliable    predictions
impossible.     The degree  of  participation  which    is
required  within  any complex   system  whose behavior  is
to be  predicted is so great,    as to make  the   persons
seeking to make reliable predictions be essential elements
of  the system which they are seeking to  analyze  through
controlled experimentation.

     Complete  analysis of a reflexive system involves  so
much self  reflection and self manipulation in the process
of   the   analysis ---  as to  engender  incomprehensibly
complex  the   possibilities  in  a multiplicity  of  non-
linear   feed-back-loops.    Tiny   changes   in   initial
conditions  of  the  self-analyzing system  will  lead  to
changes  in  later  conditions  which  are  impossible  to
anticipate    through   self    analysis,    manipulation,
measurement,   computations  and  predictions  of  limited
portions of the whole system.   Dishonesty about reflexive
processes is  not a firm foundation upon which to  base  a
program of predicting the future!

     Any  system  of  objects which is  to  be  completely
understood must  include  the annalists,  and thus must be
a reflexive  system;   even if the  annalists are  engaged
in  collusive  games  of  mutual  self  deception  in  the
conviction that such is not the case.

                                                                                                                               
                         (c) 2005 by Paul A. Smith in      
                    (On Being Yourself, Whole and Healthy)  
                                                                                                                               
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