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   %FUTILE CONTROL REFLEX PROCESS SELF OTHER RELATE 940122

     It is futile for participants in a reflexive  process
to try  to arrogate to themselves a  right/duty/power/need
to  control   any  part of the reflexive  process   within
which  they are participants.   The futility is rooted  in
the  impossibility of any participant in such  a   process
having  the necessary insight,  understanding,  knowledge,
skill,   and   power needed to assure  that   the   actual
outcome  of  any manipulative  strategy  will be  anywhere
near  the outcome which  was  intended when  the  strategy
was chosen and implemented.

     The study  of  chaotic  processes (by experts  in the
newly developing discipline which  seeks  to find  regular
patterns  of  similarity among chaotic processes)  clearly
indicates that the ability of people to predict the future
course of development of  a  complex  process  is severely
limited   beyond a span of time which   depends critically
upon:

     1.  The size and complexity of the process,
     2.  The accuracy of information about the process,
     3.  The accuracy of computational/projective tools,
     4.  The degree of reflexivity of the process,
     5.  The degree of objectivity of the process, and
     6.  The degree of honesty of the predictors.

     When the future of any process which  people  seek to
predict  depends in part upon the future behavior of   the
people  who seek to predict the future of  the  process---
that  process is an essentially reflexive process;  not an
objective  process from which people  can detach and study
objectively  in a scientifically reliable way.    Consider
the two constraining facts:  the more detached people  are
from  such a  process,  the  greater  is  their  level  of
ignorance  about  many  aspects   of  the  process.    The
ignorance  must be recognized,   named,   described,   and
talked  about  in order to understand and  anticipate  the
future course of  the process.   Such ignorance undermines
the possibility of their  predicting accurately the future
course of the process very far into the future.    Yet, on
the  other  hand,  the more involved people are in such  a
process, the more  difficult  it is for them to  transcend
the  biases which  are  generated  by  their  own  special
interests  in seeing  the  process move in one  direction,
rather  than another---and so the more likely it  is  that
they will try to influence, if not control,  the course of
development  of the process.

     The  ignorance   which  comes  from  high  levels  of
detachment  and  objectivity,  undermines the  ability  to
predict  the future course of a process.   It is difficult
for  scientists to be truly indifferent to the outcome  of
an  experiment in the light of predictions made.   Efforts
to  influence   and/or  control  a  process  often   leads
to  collusive  games  of   mutual   self  deception  which
undermine   the   level  of  honesty   and   accuracy   of
communication within and  among  those so involved.    The
process  of  trying   to  predict  the   future   of   any
process   within  which  the predictors  participate   ---
is thus    governed  by   an uncertainty  principle  (like
the  Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle  in quantum physics)
due   to   the    combination  of    the  effects  of  the
ignorance-of-exclusive-objectivity       and           the
ignorance-of-collusive-games-of-mutual-self-deception.

     See  the   next  essay  for  a  discussion   of   the
relationship of the image of  the Mandelbrought Set to the
above    considerations.

                                                                                                                               
                         (c) 2005 by Paul A. Smith in      
                    (On Being Yourself, Whole and Healthy)  
                                                                                                                               
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